Last week I focused on betting against the bad teams and got rewarded, taking a 4-1 week to the bank with the lone loss coming by a single point. I would brag more, but since the column has been winning on a fairly regular basis all season I know that is just what the loyal fans of The Tailgate Society have come to expect. Only a couple weeks remain before we move to bowl season; let’s try to find some winners on the way there with teams that perform consistently in their own back yards.
Indiana +10 vs Michigan: Indiana has seven wins already this season. In football. Tom Allen has done a great job with this team, and in his third season the improvement is really showing. The Hoosiers are completing 70% of their pass attempts, have a serviceable rushing attack, and don’t turn the ball over often. They also haven’t lost in Bloomington this season and should have a good crowd for the final (and certainly biggest) home game of the season. Michigan is in a bit of a look ahead spot here as well with Ohio State on their horizon. One final note: Indiana has covered four straight in this series and six of the last eight.
Cal at Stanford under 40: If you enjoy watching backup players slug it out, this is the game for you. Both teams are beat up and neither are very good evenwith their best players. You don’t see totals this low in the Pac-12 for no reason, and that reason also is not good defense. This could be nearly unwatchable, so I’ll watch for the under play.
Texas A&M at Georgia under 44: Georgia has a fantastic defense, quite likely the best in the country. They are a team with something to play for and is more than content to crush their opponents spirit, run the ball behind a monstrous offensive line, and march on. The Bulldogs aren’t leaning on Fromm’s arm because they don’t need to right now. A&M has given up 24 sacks on the season, and I expect Georgia to pressure Mond and win with defense again this week. They don’t care if they win by two touchdowns or two points so the play is to bet on what the team prides themselves on: defense.
Texas Tech -2.5 vs Kansas State: The Wildcats are reeling after two straight losses and their leading rusher, James Gilbert, is questionable for this game. Texas Tech isn’t getting much in the win column but has been putting up points against lately. They need to win both of their last two to become bowl eligible, and I like the Red Raiders to use their home field advantage to put up a big enough number this week that Kansas State can’t keep up.
Wisconsin -25 vs Purdue: I rode Wisconsin to a no-sweat cover last week at Nebraska, and I’m coming back to the well for the Badgers home finale. Purdue is so injured as a team I am almost starting to feel bad for them. It looks like they will still be without their most dynamic player, Rondale Moore, as well as a laundry list of other players. Wisconsin preys on the weak in Camp Randall. The Badgers have covered eight of the last ten in this matchup and will send the home crowd to the bars happy this Saturday evening.
Thank you as always to everyone for reading and sharing the column. Thanks as well to The Tailgate Society for letting me share my thoughts each week and to Deadeye BBQ for their continued support. You can find me on Twitter @tgslevi where I share other valuable insight and complain about bets I’m losing.